The gradual decrease in the number of people residing in a certain region, whether a nation, town or anything else, is known as a population decline or depopulation.
Ageing, emigration, low birth and/or fertility rates relative to the population’s replacement rate, high infant mortality rates owing to inadequate health care systems, and high death rates as a result of war, violence, illness, or natural disasters are just some of the numerous patterns that may contribute to a population drop.
The benefits and drawbacks to a country’s economy and society of a declining population are equal and balanced. With a smaller population, governments can allocate more resources per person, which might improve their standard of living.
Population decline also mitigates overpopulation’s environmental, economic, and social costs, including pollution, traffic, housing costs, and deterioration of natural habitats.
However, population loss often results in an elderly population and a reduced labour force, particularly among those with advanced degrees and professional certifications. Reduced quality of life, government-funded services, and GDP are all possible outcomes of these shortages.
Many nations are experiencing population decline due to various demographic issues. Projections of demographic indicators such as fertility, mortality, and international migration are among the many that the United Nations periodically releases.
Using these estimates, researchers at Business Insider and other sites may predict which 20 nations will have the steepest population decreases over the next three decades (2020-2050).
Many nations in Eastern Europe are losing substantial numbers of their populations due to emigration, making this region the world’s most populous region in terms of decline.
From 2020 to 2050, these 20 countries will have the fastest population decline (United Nations 2019)
|Rank||Country||Decline 2020-2050||Rank||Country||Decline 2020-2050|
|6||Bosnia and Herzegovina||18.2%||16||Georgia||11.8%|
The number of Bulgarians is predicted to drop from 6.9 million in 2020 to 5.4 million in 2050, a decrease of 22.5%. The biggest factor in the country’s decreasing population is the outflow of Bulgarians to other countries.
During the next three decades, the number of Lithuanians is expected to decrease by 22.1%. The current 2.7 million people will decrease to 2.1 million by 2050. Mass emigration is responsible for most of the population decline in Bulgaria and Lithuania.
Latvia anticipates a population decline of 21.6% between 2020 and 2050. Latvia has lost almost 20% of its population since it joined the EU in May 2004. Economic emigration and low birth rates are to blame for the country of Latvia’s declining population.
From 2020 to 2050, the number of Ukrainians is expected to decrease from 43.7 million to 35.2 million, a loss of 19.5%.
Population decline in Ukraine results from several factors, including high emigration, high mortality, and low birth rates. The nation has a birth rate of 9.2 per 1,000 and a mortality rate of 15.2 for every 1,000.
In the next 30 years, Serbia’s population is forecast to fall from 8.7 million to 7.1 million. We can roughly calculate an 18.9% drop from here.
Since there aren’t enough high-paying jobs in Serbia, many highly educated and competent professionals have fled the nation in search of them. Declining birth rates accompany high rates of migration.
6. Bosnia and Herzegovina
From 2020 to 2050, the population will fall by 18.2%, from 3.3 million people. At 1.26 children per woman, Bosnia and Herzegovina’s fertility rate is much lower than the 2.1 children per woman needed to maintain the current population.
The population of Croatia is predicted to decrease by 18.0%. In the next 30 years, the population is expected to decline from 4.1 million to about 3.4 million. The population peaked in 1991 at 4.78 million and has been steadily dropping due to decreased birth rates and an elderly population.
From 2020 to 2050, the population of Moldova is expected to fall by 16.7%. The current estimate of 4 million will likely decrease to 3.4 million by 2020. Due to widespread poverty and endemic corruption, Moldova’s ageing population has been hit hard by low wages, subpar healthcare, and high infant mortality.
It is predicted that Japan will lose 20.7% of its population between 2020 and 2050. A reduction of 16.3%, or from 126.5 million to 105.8 million, is predicted for the population. Due to very low fertility rates (1.42 births per woman) and an ageing population, Japan’s population has been declining since 2011.
In the next three decades, Albania’s population is predicted to decline by 15.8%, from 2.9 million to 2.4 million. Moreover, a third of Albania’s population now resides outside the country.
By 2050, Romania’s population is expected to have dropped by 15.5% from its 2020 level. Over the next three decades, the population is expected to decline from 19.2 million to 16.3 million.
About 3.5 million Romanians left the country between 2007 and 2015, seeking a better life away from the country’s extreme poverty and pervasive corruption.
In the next 30 years, Greece’s population is forecast to decrease by 13.4%, from 10.4 million to 9 million. In 2011, a negative birth rate was first reported in Greece, marking the start of a demographic decline. Without intervention, Greece’s population might drop by half in the next half-century.
By 2050, it is expected that Estonia’s current population of 1.3 million will have decreased by 12.7% to 1.2 million. Estonia’s population drop has been modest and steady compared to the other Baltic republics. Recent years have not seen a sharper population fall than they otherwise would have because of immigration.
There will likely be fewer Hungarians in 2050 than in 2020, when the population stood at 9.7 million. This amounts to a population loss of around 12.3%. In recent years, Hungary’s population loss rate has been above 40 thousand annually.
Hungary’s efforts to stem its population decrease centre on policies encouraging more births.
There will likely be a 12.0% decrease in Poland’s population. The population will fall from 37.8 million now to 33.3 million in 2030. The population of Poland is decreasing mostly due to low birth rates and ongoing emigration.
From 2020 to 2050, experts predict an 11.8% drop in the population, with residents dropping from 4 million to 3.5 million. Many Georgians have left the country in pursuit of better work opportunities elsewhere, which has led to a population decrease.
It is predicted that Portugal’s population will decrease by 10.9%, from 10.2 million to 9.1 million, during the next three decades. Portugal has tried to entice its emigrants, regardless of whether they were well compensated or in demand for their skills.
Also See: Countries That No Longer Exist 2022
18. North Macedonia
The population of North Macedonia is predicted to decrease by 10.9% between 2020 and 2050, from 2.1 million to 1.9 million. Since gaining independence in 1991, North Macedonia has decreased its population by 24.6%.
By 2050, Cuba’s population is predicted to have dropped to 10.2 million from the current estimate of 11.3. A combination of low birth rates and emigration has led to an ageing population. By 2050, Cuba is projected to have the world’s ninth-oldest population.
As of 2050, the population of Italy is predicted to have decreased by 10.1% from its 2020 level. Within the next three decades, the world’s present population of 60,5 million will fall to only 54,4 million.
Since Italy’s unification, the country’s birthrate has plummeted, and young people are increasingly fleeing the country for other European nations in search of employment.
|Country||Rate of Decline||2020 Population||2050 Population|
|Bulgaria||22.5000||6.9 million||5.4 million|
|Lithuania||22.1000||2.7 million||2.1 million|
|Latvia||21.6000||1.9 million||1.5 million|
|Ukraine||19.5000||43.7 million||35.2 million|
|Serbia||18.9000||8.7 million||7.1 million|
|Bosnia and Herzegovina||18.2000||3.3 million||2.7 million|
|Croatia||18||4.1 million||3.4 million|
|Moldova||16.7000||4 million||3.4 million|
|Japan||16.3000||126.5 million||105.8 million|
|Albania||15.8000||2.9 million||2.4 million|
|Romania||15.5000||19.2 million||16.3 million|
|Greece||13.4000||10.4 million||9.0 million|
|Estonia||12.7000||1.3 million||1.2 million|
|Hungary||12.3000||9.7 million||8.5 million|
|Poland||12||37.8 million||33.3 million|
|Georgia||11.8000||4.0 million||3.5 million|
|Portugal||10.9000||10.2 million||9.1 million|
|North Macedonia||10.9000||2.1 million||1.9 million|
|Cuba||10.3000||11.3 million||10.2 million|
|Italy||10.1000||60.5 million||54.4 million|